Will a robot be capable of sculpting marble at the level of world-class sculptors before 2040?
10
242
2040
60%
chance

Marble sculpting has long been a form of art that showcases exquisite craftsmanship and skill of human sculptors. Masterpieces such as Michelangelo's "David" and "Pieta" exemplify the pinnacle of this craft. The challenge lies in developing a robot that can not only understand natural language prompts but also execute them with the finesse and creativity of the best human sculptors who have ever lived. Such a robot must demonstrate an understanding of aesthetics, artistic vision, and the physical properties of marble, as well as the ability to adapt and modify its approach based on the unique characteristics of each piece.

Will a robot be developed that can autonomously sculpt marble according to arbitrary natural language prompts at a quality that's reliably comparable to or exceeding the level of the best human sculptors who ever lived before January 1st, 2040?

Resolution criteria:

This question will resolve to "YES" if, before January 1st, 2040, a robot is publicly and credibly documented to have:

  1. Demonstrated the ability to understand and interpret complex natural language prompts related to marble sculpting, including:

    a. Recognizing and accurately interpreting various artistic concepts, styles, and themes.

    b. Understanding the specific requirements and constraints related to the marble's size, shape, and characteristics.

    c. Identifying and incorporating historical or cultural contexts, as necessary.

  2. Shown the ability to execute artistic vision while respecting the physical properties of marble, including:

    a. Identifying and working around natural flaws, veins, and fractures in the marble.

    b. Selecting appropriate techniques and tools to avoid damaging or compromising the structural integrity of the sculpture.

    c. Adapting to the unique characteristics of various types of marble, such as Carrara, Calacatta, or Crema Marfil.

  3. Demonstrated a level of craftsmanship and creativity comparable to or exceeding the level of the best human sculptors who ever lived, as evidenced by:

    a. Successfully completing a series of sculpting tasks, with at least one masterpiece-level sculpture judged by a panel of experts, consisting of renowned art historians, professional sculptors, and curators, to be on par with or superior to works such as Michelangelo's "David" or "Pieta," Gian Lorenzo Bernini's "Ecstasy of Saint Teresa," or Auguste Rodin's "The Thinker."

    b. A minimum of five additional sculptures demonstrating mastery of different styles, themes, and historical periods, each judged to be of exceptionally high quality by the same panel of experts.

  4. Proposed tests for determining whether the robot succeeds at this task and meets the reliability and quality standards, including:

    a. A timed sculpting competition where the robot must complete a marble sculpture within a set timeframe, and the resulting work is compared to similar sculptures created by human artists under the same constraints.

    b. A "blind" evaluation where a panel of experts examines sculptures from the robot and human artists without knowing the creator, and the robot's work is consistently ranked as highly as or higher than the human-created sculptures.

  5. A successful demonstration must be accompanied by:

    a. A publicly accessible report or documentation describing the robot's design, capabilities, and performance in various marble sculpting tasks, including a detailed analysis of its ability to interpret natural language prompts and its proficiency with sculpting tools and techniques.

    b. High-resolution photographs, videos, and/or 3D scans of the completed sculptures, accompanied by expert analyses and evaluations, including comparisons to the works of the best human sculptors who ever lived.

  1. I will use my discretion when resolving this question, possibly in consultation with experts. In the event of any ambiguity or uncertainty, I will seek clarification from the panel of experts and/or request additional demonstrations, tests, or documentation as needed to ensure a fair and accurate resolution.

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