Will a four-legged robot run faster than a cheetah over a long distance outdoors before 2035?
27
1kṀ1460
2035
87%
chance

The cheetah is the fastest land animal, capable of speeds up to approximately 100 km/h (62 mph) in short bursts, primarily due to its light bone structure and slender body. It can maintain this speed for about 500 meters. The cheetah's speed and agility are further enhanced by its ability to traverse complex terrains, defined as an area with a variety of physical features such as hills, valleys, vegetation, rocks, and other potential obstacles. A significant milestone for robotics is to build a robot that can run faster than a cheetah over long distances.

Before January 1, 2035, will a four-legged robot demonstrate the ability to run at an average speed faster than a cheetah (100 km/h or 62 mph) over a distance of at least 500 meters in a complex outdoor terrain?

Resolution Criteria:

This question will resolve positively if, before January 1, 2035, a four-legged robot meets all of the following criteria:

1. The robot must be four-legged, where a 'leg' is defined as a limb that the robot uses for locomotion, with each leg independently powered and articulated, and designed to make contact with the ground. Wheels cannot be used to propel the robot.

2. The robot must demonstrate the ability to run at an average speed faster than a cheetah (100 km/h or 62 mph). The speed must be measured from the moment the robot begins to move until it completes the distance. The average speed must be calculated as the total distance covered divided by the total time taken.

3. The robot must maintain this speed over a distance of at least 500 meters.

4. The demonstration must occur in a complex outdoor, natural terrain, which is defined as an outdoor environment featuring at least two of the following elements: inclines or declines of at least 10 degrees, some vegetation at least 0.5 meters (1.64 feet) high, non-uniform surfaces such as large rocks, uneven ground, a largely soft surface such as dirt or sand, snow, or bodies of water with depths clearly more than 3 cm.

The demonstration must be verified through any of these sources:

a. A peer-reviewed article in a reputable scientific or engineering journal.

b. A publicly available video footage showing the entire run, with sufficient evidence (e.g., timestamps, multiple camera angles, speed and distance measurements) to independently verify the robot's performance.

c. Confirmation from an independent and reputable third party (e.g., a well-known technology or robotics company, academic institution, government agency, or a respected journalist).

The question will resolve negatively if no four-legged robot meets all the criteria before January 1, 2035. Any ambiguity regarding the fulfillment of the criteria will be resolved using my discretion.

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