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@Gigacasting I think many are forgetting that they are both Republicans.

@Gigacasting At the bottom of the second screenshot it shows that it is actually closer to 50/50.

538 currently has this at ~48%, with Tshibaka having a 52 in 100 chance of winning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/alaska/. A

Also:

"Resolves YES if Lisa Murkowski defeats Kelly Tshibaka in the Alaska Senate race. Resolves NO if he does not."

Should be “she"

@JoshuaB This is maybe the one case where I don’t fully believe 538, because I don’t think they’ve fully accounted for the effects of ranked-choice.

@JoshuaB PredictIt says 74 right now (and their numbers are redder than FiveThirtyEight)

@Conflux not sure what you mean by "redder"? The choice is between two republicans, no?

@JoshuaB Sorry for being unclear. I meant that for other elections, their numbers tend to be redder than 538. Tshibaka is more conservative so I’d expect a bias to run that direction.

@JoshuaB Thanks for that typo catch!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/lisa-murkowskis-chances-of-beating-kelly-tshibaka-35-days-to-election-day/ar-AA12AD0k

Will Murkowski win the 2022 Alaskan Senate Race?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition