Will Murkowski win the 2022 Alaskan Senate Race?
27
27
620
resolved Nov 29
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Lisa Murkowski defeats Kelly Tshibaka in the Alaska Senate race. Resolves NO if she does not.

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bought Ṁ350 of YES
predicted YES
bought Ṁ400 of YES

predicted YES

@Gigacasting I think many are forgetting that they are both Republicans.

sold Ṁ550 of YES

@Gigacasting At the bottom of the second screenshot it shows that it is actually closer to 50/50.

bought Ṁ40 of NO

538 currently has this at ~48%, with Tshibaka having a 52 in 100 chance of winning. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/alaska/. A

Also:

"Resolves YES if Lisa Murkowski defeats Kelly Tshibaka in the Alaska Senate race. Resolves NO if he does not."

Should be “she"

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@JoshuaB This is maybe the one case where I don’t fully believe 538, because I don’t think they’ve fully accounted for the effects of ranked-choice.

bought Ṁ20 of YES

@JoshuaB PredictIt says 74 right now (and their numbers are redder than FiveThirtyEight)

predicted YES

@Conflux not sure what you mean by "redder"? The choice is between two republicans, no?

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@JoshuaB Sorry for being unclear. I meant that for other elections, their numbers tend to be redder than 538. Tshibaka is more conservative so I’d expect a bias to run that direction.

@JoshuaB Thanks for that typo catch!

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