Will the 2024 election cause a manifold currency crisis?
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104
αΉ€1k
Nov 13
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chance

Many people are betting on the election, across many markets. These are long-dated bets, which means many people will be able to borrow a lot against those bets, effectively making them highly-leveraged and on uncertain outcomes.

Will this combination of features lead to some kind of currency crisis, e.g. as many people will be unable to cover their bets? This is subjective, but I expect to resolve it YES if Manifold either has to take significant bailout-like action soon after the election.

Close date is a week after the election, and will be moved if it takes longer to determine the election winners (thus election markets are still mostly open). The goal is to close this market about a week after the election markets resolve.

I will not trade in this market.

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