Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?
Plus
26
แน17712027
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
Gallup polling suggests most people don't want this, including most of the crucial demographic of independents [1].
[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/507149/americans-favor-availability-abortion-pill.aspx
Inspired by this market, but with more time:
Related questions
Related questions
Will any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?
70% chance
Will there be a federal law banning abortion nationally within the next five years?
3% chance
Will a National Abortion Ban Be Enacted in the US Before 2026?
12% chance
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
10% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a near total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
2% chance
Will the US institute a national ban on abortion anytime before 2035?
7% chance
Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
11% chance
If the GOP wins a trifecta in 2024, will a total abortion ban be passed by the midterm election?
9% chance
If Trump gets elected, will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
10% chance
If Trump is elected will the Comstock laws be used to ban the shipping of abortion pills by the end of 2026
36% chance