Will TSLA reach >$ 550 before 8pm EST on 8/8/25?
Mini
31
62k
2025
20%
chance

Clarification:

Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$550 ($550.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8/25 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.

For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ5 NO

Nope

bought Ṁ5 YES from 33% to 35%

Adjusted the amounts and timing to get more action. Hopefully no one but me feels the probability for their guess is worse now (seems even less likely by these terms, and i'm the only Yes holder rn).

You surely can't adjust the amounts, from ($550 on 8/8) to $400 on 31/12 after buying loads of YES!?

(And how could TSLA reaching a lower value on a longer timeframe be less likely?)

bought Ṁ5 YES at 35%
bought Ṁ5 YES

This is for this December

The previous one was for 8/8/25

I'm relatively new to manifold, willing to do whatever is considered good etiquette if you still think this adjustment was unfair. I was taking the advice from a comment to make it a shorter timeline, adjusted to a price I'd still give yes action on.

And it was 8/8 i.e. August previously...

You are clearly using your position as the market maker to manipulate things here.

Just change the question to the same one everyone wagered on and sell your position if you regret it. There is plenty of action on this market, just not at the price you hoped for.

Edit: My bad I didn't notice it was 8/8/25. I assumed it was Robotaxi day. In any event, I still think you should change it back.

luckily this is a Mini market. but it's still in bad form to make such large changes after traders have shown up. in the future, it's worth just making a new market. you can ask @ mods to cancel (N/A) your market if you messed something like this up, and then re-create with the correct criteria

You shouldn't readily and falsely accuse others of deceit.

Pat I took the advice to just revert it.

I did it because I guess I falsely assumed this suggestion was that I should change the market directly, quite new to manifold as I stated.

understood! thanks for reverting. if you decide you want to make the other, shorter market and don't want this one, I'm happy to N/A this for you. lmk

@kevor btw this reversion to the older criteria was for 2025, which is a longer timeline. I think seeing "8/8" might have made you think it was for 8/8 2024 (I know it did confuse me!)

@Stralor Yeah I spotted that, and addressed it in an edit above.

@MattF I am sorry if I upset you, with my comments. I accept that you acted without understanding the impact, but you must understand that you created a market, bet yes and had others bet against you and then changed the underlying terms of the bet which made it easier to win! It is manipulation, whether carelessly/innocently done or on purpose. I don't think my comments were mean-spirited and I'm sorry you took them that way. Thanks for reverting the market :)

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okay, no need for more of this. he made a mistake and acknowledged it, just as you did. let's end the beef here