Will NASA's Dragonfly mission discover any form of life on Titan by December 31, 2035?
3
1kṀ3260
2036
5%
chance

꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂

https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fipuq1/mmw_when_dragonfly_arrives_on_titan_we_will_be/

Resolution Criteria:

  1. The market will resolve as "Yes" if:

    • NASA's Dragonfly mission successfully lands on Titan and operates as intended

    • Official NASA announcements or peer-reviewed scientific publications confirm the discovery of any form of life on Titan, including but not limited to:
      a) Microbial life
      b) Simple or complex organisms
      c) Any biological structures or processes indicative of current or past life

  2. The market will resolve as "No" if:

    • Dragonfly completes its mission without discovering any form of life

    • Dragonfly fails to land or operate on Titan

    • No discovery of life is announced by NASA or published in peer-reviewed journals by December 31, 2035

  3. The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:

    • The Dragonfly mission is cancelled or indefinitely postponed before reaching Titan

    • The mission is still ongoing without conclusive results by the resolution date

Resolution Sources:

  • Official NASA press releases and mission reports

  • Peer-reviewed scientific journals (e.g., Nature, Science)

  • Statements from Dragonfly mission scientists and NASA officials

Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on December 31, 2035, or when NASA makes an official announcement about the discovery of any form of life on Titan, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:

  • The discovery of organic compounds alone does not qualify for a "Yes" resolution unless they are definitively linked to biological processes

  • The life forms must be native to Titan, not introduced by the Dragonfly mission itself

  • The market does not require the life to be methane-based or of any specific type

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