(70% confidence)

In 2022 airfare rose 36% (from pandemic lows, of course), then fell 12% in 2023. I’m (ed: Scott's) expecting the double-digit swings in flight prices are now over. This year, with airfare back to pre-pandemic levels, I’m expecting average airfare at the end of 2024 will be +/- 5% from where it ended in 2023.

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This question is from Scott Keyes' travel points and miles predictions at Going.com. This is the 3rd year Scott has made travel predictions, and the continuation of the prediction series I ran last year. I am an unaffiliated Manifold user replicating the proposals here on Manifold.

I will resolve this market based on Scott's self-stated resolution at the end of the year. See notes below.

In the same fashion I used for Scott Keyes' predictions last year, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of this year to (try to) avoid a situation where the resolutions post before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2025, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2025, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.