(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre
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In the past decade, the airline industry has shifted away from regional planes and towards larger jets, and that’s been accelerated by the ongoing pilot shortage. In 2022, the number of daily seats was down 7% (2.93 million vs. 3.16 million in 2019); I’m optimistic that we’ll top pre-pandemic levels this year.
(60% confidence)
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This is question #7 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going).
Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.
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According to Statista, it is currently predicted that in 2023, the seat volume or utilization will bounce back from the low numbers caused by covid lockdowns in 2020 to 2022 to approximately 81%. However, this would not top 2019's seat utilization levels of 82.5%. This may be further supported by the fact that the market share for the global airline industry has been down since 2018 by 3.8% which does not reflect well to the current usage of airlines. Thus, I vote that by the end of 2023, we would not have topped 2019's seat volume levels.
Sources: