This market resolves to YES if the average daily passenger volume across all transportation modes during the 15-day Mudik period (H-7 to H+7) for Idul Fitri 2025 (24 March - 7 April 2025) is LOWER than the same period for Idul Fitri 2024 (3 - 18 April 2024).
Mudik is the annual mass exodus when millions of Indonesians travel from urban centers to their hometowns for Idul Fitri. Resolution will be based on official Kemenhub (Ministry of Transportation) passenger statistics published at https://strategi.kemenhub.go.id/landing/rutin/pergerakan-penumpang?menu=all or equivalent official government source.
The Indonesian government has predicted lower participation in 2025 due to economic pressures from President Prabowo's austerity measures, but is also implementing supportive measures like discounts on airfares and toll roads.
1,000So establishing some base rates, comparing 2024 and 2025 for D-45 to D-15 Lebaran (Idul Fitri), which in 2024 falls between 25 Feb - 26 Mar 2024 (Lebaran @ 10 Apr 2024), and in 2025 falls between 14 Feb - 16 Mar 2025 (assuming Lebaran @ 31 Mar 2025), the result seems ... inconclusive? some days in 2025 have a higher volumes of passengers and vice versa, like so
A viz with Python, (with 2022 & 2023, Lebaran @ 2 May 2022 & 21 Apr 2023) ...
Summary Statistics - Average Daily Passengers (All Transport Modes)
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2022: 136,387 passengers/day
H-45 to H-35: 143,629 passengers/day
H-34 to H-25: 135,564 passengers/day
H-24 to H-15: 129,244 passengers/day
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2023: 161,638 passengers/day
H-45 to H-35: 189,039 passengers/day
H-34 to H-25: 193,513 passengers/day
H-24 to H-15: 99,622 passengers/day
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2024: 201,582 passengers/day
H-45 to H-35: 215,781 passengers/day
H-34 to H-25: 218,869 passengers/day
H-24 to H-15: 168,676 passengers/day
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2025: 183,676 passengers/day
H-45 to H-35: 196,000 passengers/day
H-34 to H-25: 210,403 passengers/day
H-24 to H-15: 143,392 passengers/day
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Seems like it'll be lower than 2024 for sure .. not by much, and still larger than 2023..