1. Airfare will fall at least 5% compared to 2022.

Scott's Cheap Flights / Going - 2023 Predictions•Cheap Flights

138

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resolved Dec 29

Resolved

YES

ALL

(Edit: 2023-01-16) Don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks! https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre

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Average fares are currently 36% higher than they were 12 months ago. (Adjusting for inflation, airfare is up 24%.) In 2023, I expect that to reverse and year-over-year fares to fall.

(70% confidence)

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This is question #1 from Scott Keyes' annual travel predictions at Scott's Cheap Flights (now Going).

Since Scott resolved and graded his 2022 predictions before the end of 2022, I am setting the close date ahead of the end of the year, to (try to) avoid a situation where he posts the resolutions before the market closes. In the event that his resolution post falls in 2024, my apologies in advance. If he hasn't posted resolutions at all by February 1, 2024, I will do my best to resolve them personally, and set N/A for any questions that I can't determine with outside (non-Going) source data.

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predicted YES

For anyone interested: I put the data together to visualize Scott's confidence scores vs. the final market value and then the outcome. I also added in my own predictions and Manifold's overall.

If anyone knows how to calculate calibrations from this, let me know? I made the sheet publically editable, so if you prefer, have at it. 😁

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K6u_oF5U0xmsN92hwoihs3yH5E5gPWcHR45V-vcC0ZM/edit#gid=316113870

See you next week for the 2024 prediction series!

predicted YES

https://www.going.com/guides/travel-predictions-for-2023

bought Ṁ350 of YES

https://www.economy.com/united-states/cpi-urban-consumer-airline-fare/seasonally-adjusted

United States CPI: Urban Consumer - Airline fare | Moody's Analytics

In line with our expectation, the headline consumer price index rose 0.4% from August to September. The increase marks a deceleration from August’s 0.6% pace and keeps the annual inflation rate at 3.7%. Energy prices again boosted the top-line figure, though to a much milder degree than in the previous month. The CPI for energy rose 1.5% in September after jumping 5.6% in August. Excluding food and energy, the CPI rose 0.3%. This brings the annual core CPI inflation rate down from 4.3% in August to 4.1%. This aligns with our and consensus expectations and likely solidifies a pause when the rate-setting FOMC meets in a few weeks. CPI: Urban Consumer - Airline fare for United States from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. This page provides forecast and historical data, charts, statistics, news and updates for United States CPI: Urban Consumer - Airline fare.

predicted YES

Hey there! Lots of activity on this market, which is great! But it's just one of thirteen travel predictions in the group. So don't just predict this one, please check out the other 12 travel predictions! Thanks!

https://manifold.markets/group/scotts-cheap-flights-going-2023-pre

Are you making this prediction inflation-adjusted or not? Your first paragraph doesn't make it clear.

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@EvanTh Thanks for the question! I am transcribing the predictions that Scott made on his company blog post, linked in the description. I personally will resolve the question however he does… but I know that doesn’t help answer your question.

Personally, my guess is that since he is listing both 2022 figures, but the inflation adjusted figure parenthetically, he will be going with the non-inflation-adjusted value for resolution of this question.