Betting YES as a hedge against bad outcomes 😅

👀 hang on, you spent 50k mana, much of which was given to you in exchange for EA donations, on specifically diverting money away from EA and towards the Free State Project, an organisation with the aim of getting 20k libertarians, of which so far only 6k have kept their pledge, to move to New Hampshire, a state with a population of 1.4M, where in the town they most heavily concentrated in, the result was cutting essential emergency services, and a huge rise in murders, sex offenses, and bear attacks?

Don't get me wrong, I strongly support libertarianism in the broad sense e.g. democracy, decentralised government, government transparency/accountability, restorative/reformative justice, decriminalisation of drugs and sex work etc, but this seems like it potentially fails to even be a net positive value organisation, let alone being maximally positive as EA orgs aims for.

While you are of course allowed to do this, unless good evidence/reasoning is presented that this organisation does in fact do significant good, I'm gonna be quite distressed if they win the raffle.

live free and die