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https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

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Oh, I missed the close date, I should have bought more. I think they mostly care about war and global warming.

With the five consecutive hottest months in 2023, as well as a new war involving a nuclear power, a recent nuclear test, the vibes are not good. The last year seems much worse on most of the metrics that moved the clock before.

@Sailfish I deliberately closed before the announcement because I wanted to see how well Manifold predicted the future, not how quickly it reacted to the news.

@MartinRandall Yeah, it was just a day or so before, not at the actual announcement. That was not a "This should still be open", it was a "I didn't look at the close date".

https://thebulletin.org/2024/01/bill-nye-joins-the-2024-doomsday-clock-announcement/

The clock will be updated on the 23rd.

The update is almost certainly going to be released in January, correct?

We're all gonna die there's no point

I don't know what will happen if doomsday if we're to come

Base rate 16/27 if I counted right.

I'm a Doomer so this is quite interesting.

@ManualBlinking They seem to be focusing on nuclear and climate doom. I'm not sure we have enough time to kill ourselves with global warming before we kill ourselves with something else.

"closer to midnight by the end of January 2024 than January 2023" would the end of January 2023 count, or do you mean the creation date of the market?

@AndrewG basically, would the announcement on Jan. 24 count, and if they had another announcement on Jan 24, 2024, would that count?

@AndrewG the intention is that it's the announcement next year

Duplicated from the 2023 market: https://manifold.markets/derikk/will-the-doomsday-clock-advance-tow?r=TWFydGluUmFuZGFsbA