When will Biden drop out?
45
1kṀ11kresolved Jul 21
100%99.0%
Before convention
0.0%
Before the election
0.5%
After losing the election
0.0%
Before inauguration (election win)
0.0%
2025 (after inauguration)
0.0%
2026
0.0%
2027
0.0%
Before completing term (2028-2029)
0.4%
Completes second term
Death counts as dropping out.
The options are intended to be exclusive. If it's ambiguous, I may resolve to multiple options.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ474 | |
| 2 | Ṁ437 | |
| 3 | Ṁ391 | |
| 4 | Ṁ366 | |
| 5 | Ṁ292 |
Sort by:
There's a real money arb: Insight Prediction: https://insightprediction.com/m/253791/will-biden-drop-out-of-the-presidential-race
vs. Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1718267360254
Full disclosure: I founded Insight.