Will Joe Biden step aside no later than at or before the Democratic Convention ends on August 22?
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resolved Jul 21
Resolved
YES

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sold Ṁ28 NO

@Bruce54df time to resolve?

Biden appears closer to accepting he may have to leave race Idea he can’t win sinking in, people close to him say By Michael D. Shear, Peter Baker, and Katie Rogers NEW YORK TIMES

"Biden is hanging onto a ledge with an ever-weakening grip.

You can’t outrun Father Time." Maureen Dowd, NYT

"What is the story of 2024? A tragedy? A comedy? A history play? All of those. Mostly it is a story of stubbornness and vanity. It is about two old men who have stayed too long, and, doing so, have put their country in danger." Lance Morrow, WSJ

"But when you consider how much better an election America might be having with two different candidates, Mr. Biden’s choice to run again ranks right up there with the worst decisions an American president has made." Holman Jenkins, WSJ

"What’s happening now should have happened 20 months ago, with Democrats prying the car keys out of Mr. Biden’s fingers." Holman Jenkins, WSJ

bought Ṁ250 YES

"We don’t know exactly how the change will come but it will come, because what we have now can’t continue. Joe Biden can’t sustain a demanding campaign and is incapable of functioning for 4½ more years as the American president. We all know this. Only three people don’t know it. They think they can tough it out. But reality doesn’t care how tough you are, reality will have its way." Peggy Noonan, WSJ

"I have been writing for several years now that Biden has a personal interest and a moral obligation to stick to his early implicit pledge to be a one-term president, and that the evidence of his mental decline is unmistakable, and that an administration that tries to cover up the obvious is writing its own epitaph." Bret Stephens, NYT

bought Ṁ250 YES

"As President Biden weighs his options, at the top of his mind must be which choice is more humiliating: stepping down—and probably still being blamed if Mr. Trump wins—or remaining on the ticket and becoming a Democratic villain for handing Donald Trump the election. The possibility that he stays on the ticket, wins a second term, and becomes a hero is a possibility that doesn’t seem to occur to anyone but Joe, Jill and Hunter." WSJ

If only the top of his mind was the best interest of the country.

As of June 30 73% of Americans think Biden is unfit to be president.

bought Ṁ100 NO

Holman Jenkins in WSJ today (Feb 21) called for Biden to step aside.

LBJ declined to run for a second term on March 31, 1968. He stepped aside for the good of the country.

This should be lower than the probability that he is not the nominee, which is currently at 91-92% percent (there are a lot of markets)

sold Ṁ50 NO

Is this about politics or about feet movement?

@marktwse About politics and fitness for office. If the Constitution requires that the President must be 35, why isn’t there a 70 or 75 cutoff at upper end?

@marktwse 🤣