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MANIFOLD
Will this market go under 10%?
7
Ṁ100Ṁ2.8k
resolved Sep 25
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if this market goes under 10% at any time.

Resolves NO if this market stays at 10% or more until close.

I will not change the close date.

I am betting in this market.

Sep 24, 9:37pm: Under construction → Will this market go under 10%?

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So... Does this resolve N/A since "Market is not yet open for bets, please wait"?

@Yev It's open now and was at the time of the bets that moved it below 10%? I needed it closed so I could place my initial limit orders and not immediately be donating m100 to one of my followers.

It looks to me like it resolves YES, unless there's some serious UI glitching.

predictedYES

@MartinRandall Wow, my UI was stuck

predictedNO

Today I learned: when I change the question for a market the url stays the same.

Today I learned: do not test in production

predictedYES

Specifically, this happened:

(note that it says 10 instead of 0.1)

predictedYES

@YaakovSaxon I would really aopreciate if you could send some of my mana back to me via a manalink...

@Yev How would I do that? Is there a way for me to DM you on here?

predictedYES

@YaakovSaxon I changed my mind. I was acting reckless and I deserve to be punished for it. You should keep the mana, you won it fair and square. :)

predictedYES

It's a big sum to you, but I'll earn it back in a few days.

This was originally an idea for a Petrov Day red button market (I would take a Manibreak for Petrov Day if it resolved Yes) but I'm not sure what the base market dynamics for it are, so I thought I'd create it and find out.

@MartinRandall As soon as someone bets this down to 10%, a bot will swoop in and bet up to 100%.

@MartinRandall Hmm, it looks like I can make an immediate profit here based on your limit orders

Maybe that's not true, I didn't actually check the math because I didn't want to be scooped :)

@Yev I would be humbled if someone wrote a bot for my little old market. Perhaps that risk is elevated during a bot competition.