Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG) | Manifold

Will there be a USD 1 billion or more hack/collapse in the crypto ecosystem in 2024? (according to Molly White/W3IGG)

Basic

10

Ṁ574

Dec 31

23%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolution will be based on the leaderboard at

https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top?dateRange=2024

on Jan 7th 2025 (plus/minus a day depending on my ability to look there), exluding any recovered funds.

I.e. if a scam/hack/collapse is reported as having a USD 1 billion value, but the figure is revised downwards and/or enough money is recovered by Jan 7th that it no longer crosses the USD 1 billion mark, it won't count for a YES resolution.

Current leader for this year is the DMM Bitcoin "leak" at USD 308 million.

If Molly White/Web3 is Going Just Great stops regularly updating the leaderboard before December 2024, this resolves NA.

Leaderboard – Web3 is Going Just Great

List of hacks and scams by dollar amount

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I wonder why this is so low - if the market ended today, it would resolve YES. The only way to resolve NO is if the NovaTech scam estimate is revised downwards/has funds recovered by EOY. This is possible, but not sure it supports a 26% valuation.

opened a Ṁ150 YES at 59% order

@AIBear I think this market just needed somebody to dig it up. All hail the algorithm. Here's a little more engagement.

So the NovaTech scam is currently estimated at exactly USD 1 billion and tops the leaderboard (https://www.web3isgoinggreat.com/charts/top?dateRange=2024)... So it could resolve this if it is not adjusted downwards when more infor is available (which I find likely)

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