Will $1mn USD worth of funds be lost as a result of fraud committed by Binance? (Before 2030)
21
9.0k
2029
90%
chance

YES if $1,000,000 USD worth of customer/investor funds were stolen, lost, or inaccessible, as a result of fraud commited by Binance or its employees. NO in 2030-Jan if this doesn't happen.

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Before 2030? This is easy money.

What is P(Binance-is-caught/Binance-commits-fraud)? Surely less than 90%?

75% -> 95%

FTFY, you're welcome.