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MANIFOLD
Who will be designated the next prime minister of Slovakia
11
Ṁ400Ṁ4.5k
resolved Oct 2
100%99.4%
Robert Fico
0.4%
Michal Šimečka
0.1%
Peter Pellegrini
0.1%Other

Resolves to the person who is first designated as the new prime minister of Slovakia after market creation (i.e. almost certainly after the 2023 elections). The president designates a prime minister, who is then required to gain confidence of the parliament. This market will resolve to the next designated person immediately and does not depend on whether the prime minister will then gain confidence. If it takes longer than expected to designate a new prime minister, the close date will be moved.

It is common (but not required) that the leader of the party that wins the plurality of seats in the parliament is designated. See e.g. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_Slovakia

The market below is similar, but requires actually gaining confidence.

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He is not prime minister yet. There is still chance that PS HLAS KDH and SAS will make a coalition. Chance is small, but it is still there

@MartinSumera I understand that he was designated as prime minister, which is what the question asks. I understand that the question does not ask whether he will also get the confidence vote.

@MartinSumera: @lrigi is right, as the market title and resolution criteria indicate, the market was about designation, not entering office/gaining confidence. See the linked market on Fico actually becoming PM