Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if JA21 secures at least four seats in the House of Representatives following the Dutch general election scheduled for October 29, 2025. Official election results published by the Dutch Electoral Council (Kiesraad) will serve as the definitive source for resolution. (en.wikipedia.org)

Background

JA21, short for "Juiste Antwoord 2021" (Right Answer 2021), is a conservative-liberal and right-wing populist political party in the Netherlands. Founded in December 2020 by Joost Eerdmans and Annabel Nanninga after their departure from Forum for Democracy, JA21 positions itself between the center-right People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) and the more radical-right Party for Freedom (PVV). (en.wikipedia.org)

In the 2023 general election, JA21 secured one seat in the House of Representatives. (en.wikipedia.org)

Considerations

The upcoming election follows the collapse of the Dutch government on June 3, 2025, triggered by the withdrawal of the PVV from the ruling coalition over disagreements on asylum policy. This political upheaval may influence voter behavior and the performance of smaller parties like JA21. (reuters.com)

Recent opinion polls indicate that JA21 is projected to secure between 1 and 4 seats in the upcoming election. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given the dynamic political landscape, traders should monitor campaign developments and polling data leading up to the election to assess JA21's prospects accurately.