Resolves based purely on my personal judgement, based on stories I hear throughout the week (not just in this market). I will not bet in this market.

For reference:

• Last week (week of 9/7) would obviously have resolved yes, because of Charlie Kirk getting assassinated.

• The week before that (week of 8/31) would have resolved yes, because of the frankly bonkers extrajudicial bombing of a retreating boat.

• The week before that (week of 8/24) would have resolved no, despite the Ascension church shooting.

• The week before that (week of 8/17) would have resolved yes, because of that whole crazy debacle with one of Eric Adams' staffers trying to bribe a reporter with cash in a chip bag .