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MANIFOLD
Will another decade happen next week?
15
Ṁ100Ṁ416
resolved Mar 24
Resolved
N/A

"There are months where nothing happens, and there are weeks where decades happen." -George Galloway (misquoting Lenin)

This week was clearly a week where decades happened. Will next week (the week of March 1st) continue that trend, or be the start of a month where nothing happens?

This market resolves based on the results of a Manifold poll to be done March 8th-14th, with the following question and options:

"Was last week a 'week where decades happened'?

With the answers:

  • Yes

  • Kind of, yes

  • Neutral / Show Results

  • Not really, no

  • No

If (Yes + (½ × Mostly Yes)) is greater than (No + (½ × Mostly No)), this market resolves YES.

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N/Aing this. Fucked up and misremembered the poll date I had down. Doing a poll at this point for, like, two weeks ago feels non-viable. Sorry about that!

@Marnix I think it's probably fine and perhaps better to do the poll now than N/A

@Jasonb Unfortunately, I have to disagree - This market was predicated on people's thoughts in the immediate period after the week, and having it later than that removes the immediacy bias that the description implied would be there.

@Marnix I think the N/A is probably fine, but I'm not sure the immediacy bias would matter that much. If it was a decade-happening week then people would probably remember it as such

This market will close for one week, and then I'll post the resolving poll.

bought Ṁ20 NO

I think this was a week where a year at most happened, not a decade

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