Note: This market will not resolve before at earliest 9/18.
Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market.
For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - Being trans, expressing support for Palestine, and hatred for an individual are not enough to signify any particular lean devoid of any other context. Each of these positions could be taken from basically all of the available options.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - The messages on the bullets, on their own, are not enough to resolve this market, in my opinion.
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): I'll attempt to use a scale more closely aligned with the general public than any personal scale. This linked comment has various examples of signifiers that could indicate lean, and lists various past shootings based on how they'd probably have resolved under this framework.
1,000People are also trading
Where we stand today (9/24):
I'm deeply distrustful of any residual "he must have been a groyper" narratives. Despite the fact that my priors were pointing me towards groyper, it REALLY doesn't feel like this is the case; everyone still saying he was sounds like they're putting out a mix of cope, conspiratorial thinking, or just misinformation. I'm willing to believe it if there was the evidence for it, but I haven't seen it and I'm going to need so much more than what we've got. I have doubts that'll happen.
If things remained exactly the same until the resolution date, it would resolve left-wing. All information I've seen so far paints a picture of someone who's roughly center-left - not quite a radical lefty, but not quite completely disconnected from politics -- Somewhere between the two, like a college student or a Facebook mom. WITH THAT SAID: I'm not willing to resolve it yet based solely on the information we have right now. I believe there is still the possibility we see new information that shows him as being further to the center than we've seen thus far.
I wish manifold had an option to turn down the "you might need to respond" stuff because holy shit there's like twenty of them pinned at any moment and they don't go away when you dismiss them
We're in a volatile information space. It's important that we allow there to be things to settle a bit. We need time for information to be released, be confirmed, and be verified for accuracy. People can be wrong, and have been already over the course of the last few days. Any evidence we see right now, even from seemingly trustworthy sources, may turn out to be bullshit the day after. As a result, no matter how damning the evidence one way or another, this market will not resolve for at least one week (9/18), so that an understanding of the shooter (or at least a narrative surrounding the understanding of the shooter) can coalesce. No exceptions.
My plan with this market is to keep it open until the close date, but I reserve the right to resolve this market sometime after 9/18 if something I deem blatantly obvious enough to warrant a resolution comes out and is borne out to be true, such as leaked neo-nazi chat logs or a history of trans activism or some kinda bafflingly nonpartisan luigi-style manifesto (This feels unlikely, but not impossible).