Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released. I will not bet in this market. If we do not have any information in 30 days resolves N/A.
For reference, the Trump shooter would have been "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Political lean will be judged on the US political spectrum.
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@Marnix so, say it’s an Iranian, Chinese, Ukrainian, or Russian sponsored attacker — is this scale going to apply based on the vibes of the country? Their individual vibes? Or is that likely to fall into the center camp if they have no obvious US political motive & it’s just to sew chaos
@WilliamGunn lmao cool, thanks. Probably the first time I’ve ever typed it out. I’ll leave the error and eat the L
@Marnix This seems unlikely to me. I have like 20% chance on some kind of right-wing shooter, but more wignat militia type, the hyper-online shooters are more mass-shooting than assassination focused in my understanding. But on priors it's usually a confused incoherent person with more personal than political motivation.
@IsaacKing Political assassins are almost always crazy, attention-hungry misanthropes, but extremist political ideologies attract people like that. Oswald was definitely crazy for example, but it would probably be accurate (if a little misleading) to classify him as "left-wing" because of his fixation on communism. (Although Oswald never seemed committed to communism and wasn't really interested in policy, he was somewhat motivated by a fantasy that if he killed prominent politicians speaking out against communism, he could somehow get personal attention from Castro and defect to Cuba where he would be seen as a hero.)
EDIT: made it more clear that this is one motivation among many, I do not know and nobody could ever know the exact motivations in their exact proportion that lead to basically any action.