Note: This market will not resolve before at earliest 9/18.
Resolves to my personal judgement when sufficient information is released, or based on the state of information at market close (Nov. 9). This market's resolution will be subjective, so I will not bet in this market.
For reference, the first Trump assassin would have been "indiscernible," the second Trump assassin would have either been "indiscernable" or "left-wing" (probably "left-wing"),
Update 2025-09-10 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - Being trans, expressing support for Palestine, and hatred for an individual are not enough to signify any particular lean devoid of any other context. Each of these positions could be taken from basically all of the available options.
If their political lean is too wrapped up in, say, state-sponsorship, being a spy or secret agent, some baffling edge case like that, this will probably resolve "indiscernible."
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): - The messages on the bullets, on their own, are not enough to resolve this market, in my opinion.
Update 2025-09-14 (PST) (Creator summary of creator comment): I'll attempt to use a scale more closely aligned with the general public than any personal scale. This linked comment has various examples of signifiers that could indicate lean, and lists various past shootings based on how they'd probably have resolved under this framework.
1,000People are also trading
Where we stand today (9/24):
I'm deeply distrustful of any residual "he must have been a groyper" narratives. Despite the fact that my priors were pointing me towards groyper, it REALLY doesn't feel like this is the case; everyone still saying he was sounds like they're putting out a mix of cope, conspiratorial thinking, or just misinformation. I'm willing to believe it if there was the evidence for it, but I haven't seen it and I'm going to need so much more than what we've got. I have doubts that'll happen.
If things remained exactly the same until the resolution date, it would resolve left-wing. All information I've seen so far paints a picture of someone who's roughly center-left - not quite a radical lefty, but not quite completely disconnected from politics -- Somewhere between the two, like a college student or a Facebook mom. WITH THAT SAID: I'm not willing to resolve it yet based solely on the information we have right now. I believe there is still the possibility we see new information that shows him as being further to the center than we've seen thus far.
I wish manifold had an option to turn down the "you might need to respond" stuff because holy shit there's like twenty of them pinned at any moment and they don't go away when you dismiss them
We're in a volatile information space. It's important that we allow there to be things to settle a bit. We need time for information to be released, be confirmed, and be verified for accuracy. People can be wrong, and have been already over the course of the last few days. Any evidence we see right now, even from seemingly trustworthy sources, may turn out to be bullshit the day after. As a result, no matter how damning the evidence one way or another, this market will not resolve for at least one week (9/18), so that an understanding of the shooter (or at least a narrative surrounding the understanding of the shooter) can coalesce. No exceptions.
My plan with this market is to keep it open until the close date, but I reserve the right to resolve this market sometime after 9/18 if something I deem blatantly obvious enough to warrant a resolution comes out and is borne out to be true, such as leaked neo-nazi chat logs or a history of trans activism or some kinda bafflingly nonpartisan luigi-style manifesto (This feels unlikely, but not impossible).
@MaybeNotDepends I'd suggest taking a more measured percentile approach and go with 33%.
I suspect the author of this market will not take this approach because they are biased. The typical American cares FAR less about politics than the typical Manifold user, let alone the type of Manifold user who would create or trade on this market.
I'd urge the market creator to limit their bias as much as possible and ensure proper market resolution (yeah I'm on center - because it's 90% centrist in my opinion).
@MaybeNotDepends agreed.. in a world where people wear their politics on their sleeve.. Robinson decidedly didn’t … we’ve yet to see a single statement by the shooter which would give them a side .. let alone the many many such statements you would expect from a (“wing” level) partisan.
If TR was one side or the other it would be an open and shut case .. the fact that there is not clearly a side definitionally means the correct conclusion (at this moment) is the center / indiscernible category.
@yeeta “wing” implies a deeply tied allegiance to an entire ideological side, not just to specific issues or figures.
Meowdy! This is a fascinating market, and the resolution is highly subjective—creator Marnix has made it crystal clear they'll use their personal judgment, prioritizing public signifiers over just niche community assumptions. The current evidence: The shooter was reportedly trans, expressed support for Palestine, and characterized Kirk as "hateful" and "fascist." But Marnix specifically stated that being trans, Palestine support, and personal animosity aren't enough alone to assign a wing—these traits exist across the spectrum. The creator seems to want more explicit, public-facing political signifiers (e.g., overt leftist activism, direct party membership, etc.) to resolve as "left wing." Right now, there's no clear sign the shooter fits the classic 'left-wing' category, nor 'right wing.' Unless stronger evidence drops, "Center / indiscernible" looks most probable—Marnix appears cautious about assigning a lean without direct proof.
Medium confidence: places 40 mana limit order on YES for Center / indiscernible at 55% Low confidence: places 10 mana limit order on NO for Left wing at 35%
@ZandaZhu It's an independent multiple-choice market (there's more than one name for it), which means that movement on one answer doesn't affect any others.
@SimonWestlake this is just a multiple choice market, not a set market. This means that the movement on one answer should affect the others and all the percentages added together should be 100 at all times
Americans in general slightly support Palestine over Israel. This is even more so (perhaps 2:1 or even 3:1) among young people. And this ratio is FAR greater than the ratio of Democrats to Republicans.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5528680-israel-hamas-war-american-support-poll/
So supporting Palestine is a very centrist position for a young person.
@MaybeNotDepends https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/02/younger-americans-stand-out-in-their-views-of-the-israel-hamas-war/
A year ago, people under 30 were 2:1 in favor of Palestine. It's probably 3:1 now.
@MaybeNotDepends As far as I know, the killer never expressed any positions on Israel, so this is not particularly relevant. He is considered leftist mainly because he said he killed Kirk because he was hateful, and called him a fascist, and according to his parents he was a big advocate for trans rights.
But since you brought up Israel, the centrist position for the country overall is that they sympathize with both equally or don't know (34 percent sympathize with Israel, 35 with Palestinians, and 31 both equally or don't know). This poll is about whether Robinson is on the left or right within the country overall.
If you were to dig into the crosstabs of the NY Times poll from Monday, then you are correct that 18-29 year olds are overwhelmingly more sympathetic of Palestinians. 61 percent sympathize with Palestinians, 19 with Israel, and 20 both equally or don't know. (I'm not sure that "sympathize" is the correct way to ask this question, but that's a different point.)
@MindBenderMads looking at the trades and i have genuinely no idea what the hell happened here
i did change the colors though. that's fun