Background

We've had a few instances of this happening — Trump tells people that there'll be a "very big announcement in the following days," and then we get either a couple of small announcements OR nothing at all, leaving us without any definitive follow-up.

Unfortunately for Manifold, we love guessing what it'll be. It's made a tricky resolution for at least two markets so far. Therefore, instead of a market trying to figure out what he's hinting at, I'm wondering if we'll have another one of these situations again.

Resolution criteria

For a YES resolution, all of this must occur:

1. Trump makes a statement hinting that there'll be an announcement at some point in the near future that people should look out for.

2. At the end of the time period Trump gives (or after a month), I'm personally not confident about what, specifically, his big announcement was.

I will not bet in this market. In the event that I'm unreachable or my resolution is deemed wildly unfit, this market should be resolved by a Manifold poll.