This will resolve for any event that happens in October that is called an "October Surprise" by more than 2 major news outlets (as subjectively determined by me (or the mods if i am unavailable or incapacitated)). "Early October surprise" or "late October Surprise" won't resolve this. If RFK is affected by an October surprise, it won't resolve this but will be very funny. In the event both candidates are affected by their own separate October Surprises, this will resolve "Both." I will also resolve to "both" if the October Surprise is some non-scandal (e.g. an invasion or a terrorist attack) that affects the messaging in the race, regardless of who it helps or hurts in the race.

I will not bet in this market.