Any resolves YES if within 5 days following that event there is a 0.5% or higher jump in the Silver Bulliten national polling average or a 25+ number jump in (Polling Average Difference)*(Electoral Votes), or it is obvious.

November events are also included.

Florida is a swing resolves YES if it drops within 3 points.

No October Suprise resolves YES if no other option resolves YES.

If there are less than 5 days left till the election following an event, instead the final Silver Bulliten polling average is used instead of a 5-day difference.