What will the the october suprise?
14
100Ṁ358
resolved Nov 5
100%2%Other
3%
Any Harris Scandal
3%
Any Trump Scandal
1.1%
Both Of The Above
1.4%
Florida is a Swing State
1.3%
Trump Drops Out
89%
No October Suprise

Any resolves YES if within 5 days following that event there is a 0.5% or higher jump in the Silver Bulliten national polling average or a 25+ number jump in (Polling Average Difference)*(Electoral Votes), or it is obvious.

November events are also included.

Florida is a swing resolves YES if it drops within 3 points.

No October Suprise resolves YES if no other option resolves YES.

If there are less than 5 days left till the election following an event, instead the final Silver Bulliten polling average is used instead of a 5-day difference.

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US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Ukraine-Russia war
Kamala Harris
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I resolved OTHER on the chance of Harris winning IOWA doubling in the silver bulitien forecast, I think there was a multi-point jump after the SELZER poll.

@GarudShah Why not wait to resolve this instead of resolving it speculatively now?

That last bit about switching to the Silver Bulletin within 5 days of the election, is something you added recently AND something that double counts a late breaking poll result and news of a late breaking poll result to arrive at a dubious conclusion… sketchy my friend.

@BlueDragon the final silver builliten polling average had released, and that’s what im basing it on.

I’m relatively new to Manifold, sorry! I‘ll try to do better next time.

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