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https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna97885#cobssid=s
Don't love either of these dudes, but at least they aren't over 75 years old
@jacksonpolack personally, I'm shorting Biden all around, so that should make even greasy pols like Newsom more likely
@jacksonpolack I got in last night too. Newsom was re-elected last fall and he is campaigning harder than ever right now. If I were him I would see my opening right now.
Also, last week Barack Obama had lunch with Biden in the White House. It was unusual and I bet it had a purpose. Obama is the only person in a position to tell Joe he should reconsider. Just my take.
@BTE Didn't know about Biden+Obama dinner date until now, but I was thinking the slow gears of the D party had been turning in this direction for a while. What is your guess on the timing of when Biden would withdraw, assuming he does so?
@AlQuinn Now he can pull a great rope a dope maneuver and time the announcement in such a way that puts the GOP on their heels. Not to mention he will probably want to choose his successor. I think you swap Newsom for Biden and keep Kamala as VP around Christmas and they can’t lose imo.
@BTE as a native Californian, even I think Newsom is too much of a left-coaster to be massively viable. It's just because the Dem bench strength in the sub-70 age group is next to nothing that I think someone like Newsom would get a bump in the no-Biden scenario. For that reason, I'm just taking a nibble here on Newsom, while I'm balls-deep on Kamala (no obvious successor so the VP naturally has the greatest claim to the throne).
I was thinking late Q4 or early Q1 myself on the rug-pull. Doing it earlier would effectively extend Biden's lame duck period, while doing it later would hobble a successor's candidacy. Slotting in #Kopmala might also be logistically simpler if deciding later, but not sure.
I don't see it, but idk.
All of the internet personalities I know, big or small, who are into democrat internal politics or are staffers / do polling are not talking about newsom at all. Biden seems fine, his campaign seems fine, he's ahead of trump in betting markets. And a single obama-biden lunch doesn't seem that important, running for president is a big thing
@jacksonpolack I feel you on all of that except Biden does NOT feel fine to me. Not at all. He is deteriorating quickly IMO.
@BTE Newsom’s problem is that he has a horrible impression among independents and Republicans. He would probably draw out more Democrats than Biden, but Biden’s favorability among Democrats isn’t that bad. Newsom is younger of course, which is a plus, but he just has such a negative reputation.
Also, Newsom hasn’t really been campaigning nationally at all, which I think he would have been more if he were actually considering 2024.
@Gabrielle I am an independent who lives in Bloomington, IN and he is by far the most visible Democrat other than Biden. He appeals very much to me. He has been obviously setting himself up for a campaign against Desantis for the last year. At least obviously to me.
A related market that conditions on whether he actually runs:
https://manifold.markets/AashiqDheeraj77eb/if-gavin-newsom-runs-in-the-democra
