For the purposes of this market, treat NO as if it is 100x less likely. Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability):

0.02% YES => ~2% YES' (actually 1.96%)

0.05% YES => ~5% YES' (actually 4.76%)

0.1% YES => 9% YES'

0.2% YES => 17% YES'

0.5% YES => 33% YES'

1% YES => 50% YES'

2% YES => 67% YES'

5% YES => 84% YES'

10% YES => 92% YES'

20% YES => 96% YES'

50% YES => 99% YES'

100% YES => 100% YES'

This market will resolve if any of the following are true:

- If this market reaches its close date

- If PA9baZofXHsOISfJSpj7 closes (Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?).

It will resolve based on the following decision tree:

- If the human operator agrees:

- Amplified odds:

- If the referenced market resolves YES, resolve YES

- Resolved (or current, if not resolved) value of PA9baZofXHsOISfJSpj7 (Will Ukrainian troops enter in Moscow in 2022?).

- If it resolved NO, generate a random number using a predetermined seed

- If the number is less than 1 / a (100 -> ~0.01), resolve NO

- Otherwise, resolve N/A

- Otherwise, resolve to the equivalent price of the reference market

- Otherwise, a manually provided value

Note that the bot operator reserves the right to resolve contrary to the purely automated rules to preserve the spirit of the market. All resolutions are first verified by the human operator.

The operator also reserves the right to trade on this market unless otherwise specified. Even if otherwise specified, the operator reserves the right to buy shares for subsidy or to trade for the purposes of cashing out liquidity.

Sep 27, 8:50pm:

Sep 27, 8:51pm: