Will the sun not explode?
resolved May 25

Get Ṁ200 play money

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predicted YES

I'm so glad that this whopping 3% existential risk didn't come true! Somehow it makes me more optimistic about other existential risks humanity faces

predicted YES

Wait why did people buy NO in this

predicted YES

@AshleyDavies They thought the sun would explode.

predicted YES

@AshleyDavies That's just how prediction markets work, people don't have to agree with you.

predicted YES

Then my question is what led people to confidence that the sun will explode

predicted YES

@AshleyDavies They don't have to be all that confident, maybe they thought the market was overly confident on sun not exploding.

predicted YES

I’m not sure you’re really adding anything to the discussion here. I’m curious if there was a real motive (perhaps because Mark wrongly resolved a prior market?), and you know as well as I that nobody really thought there was a >1% chance of the sun exploding a few days ago

Are you just trolling?

predicted YES

@AshleyDavies I'm making silly jokes because it's a silly market where such things are appropriate.

Here are some potential reasons:

  1. People bought some NO just 4 lulz.

  2. People accidentally bought in the wrong direction confusing with the inverted question ("Will the sun explode?")

predicted NO

@AshleyDavies there's also the question of whether the sun's fusion reaction is an explosion, which was the prior resolution.

predicted NO

@AshleyDavies It's because @cos put a lot of money into this market and it would be hilarious to resolve NO and steal it from him. If the admins start getting pinged, make something up about fusion reaction or solar flares while snickering at them as he writes an essay about Manifold's loan-based pyramid schemes.

Probably 5% on all that happening.

@42irrationalist I'm pretty sure they bet because the market creator has resolved this kind of market wrong 2 or 3 times now.

predicted YES

@DavidChee might wanna look into this one (banned user, still unresolved)

@prodict he's still around and can still resolve his markets whenever. Was only a temp ban from commenting and creating new markets.

predicted YES

Sooo... What do we do if Mark Ingragam / Derk Dicerk decided to not resolve this, ever?

@Lehiic I'll eventually N/A it but wont do so for a while at least.

bought Ṁ1,284 of YES

@Austin I assume the staff will resolve this since the user is banned?

predicted NO

@cos banned users can still resolve existing markets, last I checked.

Yes. I can confirm that one banned user resolved (after the ban) several markets (created before the ban) in December last year.

Because they were defending marxists or whatever retardation.

But because mods banned me I refuse to resolve this market. When you guys grow up and stop acting like absolute retards then we can have these markets again.

predicted YES

@ElliotDavies I'm Mark, I replied above.