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I'm so glad that this whopping 3% existential risk didn't come true! Somehow it makes me more optimistic about other existential risks humanity faces

Wait why did people buy NO in this

@AshleyDavies They thought the sun would explode.

@AshleyDavies That's just how prediction markets work, people don't have to agree with you.

Then my question is what led people to confidence that the sun will explode

@AshleyDavies They don't have to be all that confident, maybe they thought the market was overly confident on sun not exploding.

I’m not sure you’re really adding anything to the discussion here. I’m curious if there was a real motive (perhaps because Mark wrongly resolved a prior market?), and you know as well as I that nobody really thought there was a >1% chance of the sun exploding a few days ago

Are you just trolling?

@AshleyDavies I'm making silly jokes because it's a silly market where such things are appropriate.

Here are some potential reasons:

1. People bought some NO just 4 lulz.

2. People accidentally bought in the wrong direction confusing with the inverted question ("Will the sun explode?")

@AshleyDavies there's also the question of whether the sun's fusion reaction is an explosion, which was the prior resolution.

@AshleyDavies It's because @cos put a lot of money into this market and it would be hilarious to resolve NO and steal it from him. If the admins start getting pinged, make something up about fusion reaction or solar flares while snickering at them as he writes an essay about Manifold's loan-based pyramid schemes.

Probably 5% on all that happening.

@42irrationalist I'm pretty sure they bet because the market creator has resolved this kind of market wrong 2 or 3 times now.

@DavidChee might wanna look into this one (banned user, still unresolved)

@prodict he's still around and can still resolve his markets whenever. Was only a temp ban from commenting and creating new markets.

Sooo... What do we do if Mark Ingragam / Derk Dicerk decided to not resolve this, ever?

@Lehiic I'll eventually N/A it but wont do so for a while at least.

@DavidChee nerd.

@Austin I assume the staff will resolve this since the user is banned?

@cos banned users can still resolve existing markets, last I checked.

Yes. I can confirm that one banned user resolved (after the ban) several markets (created before the ban) in December last year.

Because they were defending marxists or whatever retardation.

But because mods banned me I refuse to resolve this market. When you guys grow up and stop acting like absolute retards then we can have these markets again.

Similar markets by op have resolved incorrectly https://manifold.markets/MarkIngraham/will-the-sun-not-explode?r=RWxsaW90RGF2aWVz

@ElliotDavies jfc

@ElliotDavies I'm Mark, I replied above.