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@AshleyDavies They thought the sun would explode.

@AshleyDavies That's just how prediction markets work, people don't have to agree with you.

Then my question is what led people to confidence that the sun will explode

@AshleyDavies They don't have to be all that confident, maybe they thought the market was overly confident on sun not exploding.

I’m not sure you’re really adding anything to the discussion here. I’m curious if there was a real motive (perhaps because Mark wrongly resolved a prior market?), and you know as well as I that nobody really thought there was a >1% chance of the sun exploding a few days ago

Are you just trolling?

@AshleyDavies I'm making silly jokes because it's a silly market where such things are appropriate.

Here are some potential reasons:

1. People bought some NO just 4 lulz.

2. People accidentally bought in the wrong direction confusing with the inverted question ("Will the sun explode?")

@AshleyDavies there's also the question of whether the sun's fusion reaction is an explosion, which was the prior resolution.

@AshleyDavies It's because @cos put a lot of money into this market and it would be hilarious to resolve NO and steal it from him. If the admins start getting pinged, make something up about fusion reaction or solar flares while snickering at them as he writes an essay about Manifold's loan-based pyramid schemes.

Probably 5% on all that happening.

@42irrationalist I'm pretty sure they bet because the market creator has resolved this kind of market wrong 2 or 3 times now.

@prodict he's still around and can still resolve his markets whenever. Was only a temp ban from commenting and creating new markets.

@Lehiic I'll eventually N/A it but wont do so for a while at least.

@DavidChee nerd.

@cos banned users can still resolve existing markets, last I checked.

Yes. I can confirm that one banned user resolved (after the ban) several markets (created before the ban) in December last year.

@ElliotDavies jfc

@ElliotDavies I'm Mark, I replied above.