Margin of victory in South Carolina GOP primary?
47
2kṀ30k
resolved Feb 26
100%99.0%
20-24.9 points
0.0%
4.9 points or less
0.0%
5-9.9 points
0.0%
10-14.9 points
0.5%
15-19.9 points
0.2%
25-29.9 points
0.2%
Over 29.9 points

Politics
US Politics
Trump
2024 US Presidential Election
Nikki Haley
2024 Republican Primaries
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1y

DDHQ has updated to show Richland at 100%, matching the SOS site. Let’s see if NYT/AP does the same, and this can be settled.

bought Ṁ10 YES

The only county left is Richland. Based on the ratio of early to Election Day votes for counties that votes similarly to Richland today or in 2020, I believe the remainder is entirely early vote, which favors Haley. Which means the margin gets pushed down to 15-19.9. Could be totally wrong about this, but I did the same for Greenville before the last vote drop and concluded the same thing. https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/119816/web.317647/#/detail/100?county=Richland

1y

What makes you think Richland is the only county left? Is that based on the NYTimes turnout model? I see all of the precincts have reported.

1y

@TimothyJohnson5c16 NYT and DDHQ both show there's some vote left. If they're wrong and this is all there is, then 20-24.9 would resolve yes.

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 88% order1y

@MarkHamill I put a limit up

1y

@MarkHamill I thought that the NYT number for votes remaining is just an estimate based on expected turnout, so there might be times when the actual total is lower. Is that wrong?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I’ll give it until 5pm ET Monday. If it still isn’t updated on NYT, I will go off the SOS data and resolve 20-24.9.

1y

@SemioticRivalry Not that confident 😉

bought Ṁ1 YES1y

does a percentage between 19.9 and 20 resolve to the lower or higher option?

bought Ṁ200 NO1y

@MarkHamill What would "19.95" resolve to (since it's less than 20.00)?

1y

@proa200 Sorry for not responding to this sooner, I genuinely missed it. Because I didn't put anything in the description, the lower bracket will resolve yes if the results are below 19.5000, and the upper one if above 19.5000. If exactly 19.5000 I will unfortunately have to N/A

@MarkHamill Actually it looks like I can resolve 50/50 to both options so I'll do that if exactly 19.95000

bought Ṁ100 NO1y

@MarkHamill Ah, got it (also, I think you mean "19 . 9 5 000" and not "19 . 5 000")

1y

@PaintspotInfez Yes, sorry for the typos! Typing this while on the go.

bought Ṁ50 YES1y

DDHQ

538

RCP

1y

Haley's got about a 3% chance of winning. If she does, the margin will be narrow.

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