Basic
47
30k
resolved Feb 26
100%99.0%
20-24.9 points
·
5mo
0.0%
4.9 points or less
·
5mo
0.0%
5-9.9 points
·
5mo
0.0%
10-14.9 points
·
5mo
0.5%
15-19.9 points
·
5mo
0.2%
25-29.9 points
·
5mo
0.2%
Over 29.9 points
·
5mo

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DDHQ has updated to show Richland at 100%, matching the SOS site. Let’s see if NYT/AP does the same, and this can be settled.

bought Ṁ10 15-19.9 points YES

The only county left is Richland. Based on the ratio of early to Election Day votes for counties that votes similarly to Richland today or in 2020, I believe the remainder is entirely early vote, which favors Haley. Which means the margin gets pushed down to 15-19.9. Could be totally wrong about this, but I did the same for Greenville before the last vote drop and concluded the same thing. https://www.enr-scvotes.org/SC/119816/web.317647/#/detail/100?county=Richland

What makes you think Richland is the only county left? Is that based on the NYTimes turnout model? I see all of the precincts have reported.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 NYT and DDHQ both show there's some vote left. If they're wrong and this is all there is, then 20-24.9 would resolve yes.

opened a Ṁ5,000 20-24.9 points YES at 88% order

@MarkHamill I put a limit up

@MarkHamill I thought that the NYT number for votes remaining is just an estimate based on expected turnout, so there might be times when the actual total is lower. Is that wrong?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I’ll give it until 5pm ET Monday. If it still isn’t updated on NYT, I will go off the SOS data and resolve 20-24.9.

@SemioticRivalry Not that confident 😉

bought Ṁ1 10-14.9 points YES

does a percentage between 19.9 and 20 resolve to the lower or higher option?

bought Ṁ200 15-19.9 points NO

@MarkHamill What would "19.95" resolve to (since it's less than 20.00)?

@proa200 Sorry for not responding to this sooner, I genuinely missed it. Because I didn't put anything in the description, the lower bracket will resolve yes if the results are below 19.5000, and the upper one if above 19.5000. If exactly 19.5000 I will unfortunately have to N/A

@MarkHamill Actually it looks like I can resolve 50/50 to both options so I'll do that if exactly 19.95000

bought Ṁ100 15-19.9 points NO

@MarkHamill Ah, got it (also, I think you mean "19 . 9 5 000" and not "19 . 5 000")

@PaintspotInfez Yes, sorry for the typos! Typing this while on the go.

bought Ṁ50 25-29.9 points YES
4.9 points or less

Haley's got about a 3% chance of winning. If she does, the margin will be narrow.