After recent controversies, will fewer students apply to Harvard, MIT, and Penn than last year?
23
339
815
resolved Mar 29
Resolved
YES
Harvard will have fewer applicants
Resolved
NO
MIT will have fewer applicants
Resolved
NO
Penn will have fewer applicants

MIT, Harvard, and Penn were famously in the news for having their presidents lambasted at a Congressional hearing for alleged anti semitism on their campuses. In the past, negative attention in the press on campus conditions such as crime or sexual misconduct has led to temporary declines in applications, which result in higher admission rates. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-02/jewish-students-skip-harvard-penn-applications-after-hamas-israel-controversy

This market is about whether each of the undergraduate schools will have a lower NUMBER OF APPLICANTS than reported in 2023.

MIT: 26,914 applications in 2023 https://mitadmissions.org/apply/process/stats/

Penn: 59,465 applications https://www.thedp.com/article/2023/12/penn-early-decision-results-class-of-2028#:~:text=At%20a%20Board%20of%20Trustees,48%20states%20and%2097%20countries.

Harvard: 56,937 applications https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/3/31/admissions-decisions-2027/#:~:text=Harvard%20College%20admitted%203.41%20percent,cycle%20at%207%20p.m.%20Thursday

I may add more schools if there’s enough interest. They don’t need to be necessarily Israel/Palestine related, just if people expect a substantial difference from last year.

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bought Ṁ2,000 MIT will have fewer ... NO

Updated with 2023 sources

bought Ṁ20 Penn will have fewer... YES

I bet yes on all of them simply due to demographic effects. I doubt the controversies will change application numbers much.

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