I know many of the group houses in the Bay.

I will personally judge this question. If I feel it's ambiguous, then I'll ask a respectable judge of talent for their take (e.g. a major VC or philanthropic funder).

The major flavors of talent & success relevant to this question are along the lines of positive impact on the world and/or net worth, and what sorts of things the house's alumni go on to do over the decades after their stay.

I am open to suggestions for more objective resolution mechanisms.