This market will resolve to "Yes" if the ongoing Writers Guild of America's (WGA) strike ends by September 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the ongoing WGA strike to be considered ended, both WGAW (Writers Guild of America West) and WGAE (Writers Guild of America East) must end the strike.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WGA (WGAW: https://www.wga.org/; WGAE: https://www.wgaeast.org/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ720 | |
| 2 | Ṁ575 | |
| 3 | Ṁ339 | |
| 4 | Ṁ281 | |
| 5 | Ṁ256 |
@MarcusAbramovitch plz, leagues are ending and i need the mana to make last minute plays to survive.
@KevinBurke Summary of the deal:
https://www.wgacontract2023.org/the-campaign/summary-of-the-2023-wga-mba
In the 2008 strike, tentative deal was announced 2/9, leadership votes were 2/10, and member voting took place 2/11 - 2/12, with the strike ending 2/12. So far things unfolding similarly this time around. And the reporting indicates the writers got most of what they wanted, so no way they're going to reject the deal.
70 seems a bit low IMO, what is it that people are worried will delay this?
@KevinBurke From the guild's website, they are going to have leadership vote on Tuesday and then educate the membership before a vote of all members. Seems like the resoution is about how fast the rank and file can be convinced and then how long it takes themt to vote. The deal could also suck.
"Immediately after those leadership votes, which are tentatively scheduled for Tuesday if the language is settled, we will provide a comprehensive summary of the deal points and the Memorandum of Agreement. "
Kalshi at 70%. I think both sides have too much at stake to move slowly https://kalshi.com/markets/wga/writers-strike-ends#wga-23jul31
@AaronBreckenridge I haven’t seen when the rank and file are set to vote on it. The market is correcting after the initial news.
@parhizj Even if it gets finalized tonight, it’s going to take too long for ratification — they’re going to need at least a week to vote on it (assuming it even passes) before they can go back to work.
@parhizj The strike may end before being ratified:
“If that authorization is approved, the Board and Council would also vote on whether to lift the restraining order and end the strike at a certain date and time (to be determined) pending ratification. This would allow writers to return to work during the ratification vote, but would not affect the membership’s right to make a final determination on contract approval.”
"leadership votes, which are tentatively scheduled for Tuesday if the language is settled"
So in summary, all of the following conditions still need to be met for this to resolve YES: 1) confirming the contract language, 2) negotiating committee vote of approval, 3) WGAE Council vote to accept the agreement, 4) WGAW Board vote to accept the agreement, 5) WGAE Council vote to end the strike by the 30th, 6) WGAW Board vote to end the stirke by the 30th
@parhizj Generally I bet on things not happening, since more things don’t happen than do. But I think that the parties could move very quickly and are motivated to do so. That said, the language of “schedule an end to the strike” Is somewhat concerning to me. Why wouldn’t they immediately end the strike? That’s enough for me to exit my position.