Will SBF get Adderall in jail?

33% chance

Will SBF take a plea deal?

46% chance

Will Going Infinite explicitly assert that SBF misused customer funds because the "ends justify the means?"

Benthamite

26% chance

Conditional on SBF being convicted of a felony, how long will his jail sentence be?

Alvaro de Menard

SBF convicted of a felony before 2024

44% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023?

21% chance

Will Michael Lewis release his book about SBF before a verdict is reached in his trial?

90% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2024

80% chance

Will SBF be offered a deal?

68% chance

Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research?

TANSTAAFL

30% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?

27% chance

Will SBF plead guilty? (2023)

32% chance

Will SBF testify at his trial?

34% chance

Will SBF change his plea before the trial starts?

27% chance

Will Michael Lewis testify at SBF's trial?

30% chance

Will SBF be sentenced to 20+ Years?

78% chance

How much will we believe SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse after 1 year? [Poll, resolves to avg %]

Jack

86% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 20 years or more?

Benjamin Ikuta

76% chance

Will SBF be charged with witness tampering?

oh no

21% chance

SBF Trial in October

29% chance

Sort by:

For the record, the Polymarket is probably heading to a UMA dispute.

Jonas Vollmer

Why is this trading so high? Seems like it would've already come out if he got it; very unlikely to happen in the next few days?

John Beecherbought Ṁ700 ofYES

brubsby

what does he know

Conflux

thought the title was about Adderall going to jail lol

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ100 NO at 33% (cancelled) 🤖

interstice sold Ṁ114 NO from 29% to 36%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ38/Ṁ100 YES at 29% (cancelled) 🤖

Gökhan sold Ṁ69 YES from 33% to 24%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ14/Ṁ100 YES at 33% (cancelled) 🤖

Oberlin sold Ṁ43 YES from 37% to 31%

gmbleawy bought Ṁ10 YES from 35% to 37%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 NO at 35% 🤖

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ15/Ṁ15 NO at 36% 🤖

gmbleawy bought Ṁ50 YES from 31% to 38%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ42/Ṁ100 NO at 31% (cancelled) 🤖

gmbleawy bought Ṁ50 YES from 27% to 34%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ100 YES at 27% (cancelled) 🤖

Yannick Mühlhäuser bought Ṁ100 NO from 31% to 26%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ44/Ṁ100 NO at 31% (cancelled) 🤖

Oberlin bought Ṁ40 YES from 28% to 34%

Nico D sold Ṁ23 NO from 27% to 28%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ11/Ṁ100 YES at 27% (cancelled) 🤖

Caleb Parikh bought Ṁ100 NO from 31% to 25%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 YES at 31% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ37/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled) 🤖

Matt Burtell bought Ṁ250 NO from 39% to 22%

Gökhan created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 85%

Nico D sold Ṁ6 NO from 38% to 39%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 38% 🤖

NiciusBotBot filled limit order Ṁ16/Ṁ16 NO at 40% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ56/Ṁ100 NO at 42% (cancelled) 🤖

Gökhan bought Ṁ100 YES from 33% to 49%

VeatBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ20 NO at 33% 🤖

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ97/Ṁ100 NO at 35% (cancelled) 🤖

Gökhan sold Ṁ186 NO from 28% to 46%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 YES at 28% (cancelled) 🤖

MaxG bought Ṁ300 NO from 50% to 23%

ayylmao bought Ṁ20 NO from 53% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ20/Ṁ100 YES at 53% (cancelled) 🤖

ayylmao bought Ṁ90 NO from 66% to 50%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ87/Ṁ100 YES at 66% (cancelled) 🤖

Gökhan bought Ṁ100 NO from 76% to 55%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 76%

Nico D sold Ṁ52 YES from 81% to 78%

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ50 YES from 78% to 81%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 78% (cancelled) 🤖

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ55 YES from 76% to 80%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 76% (cancelled) 🤖

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ50 YES from 74% to 78%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ5/Ṁ100 NO at 74% (cancelled) 🤖

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ50 YES from 71% to 75%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ7/Ṁ100 NO at 71% (cancelled) 🤖

higherLEVELING bought Ṁ50 YES from 68% to 73%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ13/Ṁ100 YES at 68% (cancelled) 🤖

Related questions

Will SBF plead guilty?

33% chance

Will SBF take a plea deal?

46% chance

Will Going Infinite explicitly assert that SBF misused customer funds because the "ends justify the means?"

Benthamite

26% chance

Conditional on SBF being convicted of a felony, how long will his jail sentence be?

Alvaro de Menard

SBF convicted of a felony before 2024

44% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2023?

21% chance

Will Michael Lewis release his book about SBF before a verdict is reached in his trial?

90% chance

Will SBF be in prison by Dec 2024

80% chance

Will SBF be offered a deal?

68% chance

Will either of SBF's parents be charged by the end of 2023 with a crime for their involvement with FTX / Alameda Research?

TANSTAAFL

30% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 50 years or more?

27% chance

Will SBF plead guilty? (2023)

32% chance

Will SBF testify at his trial?

34% chance

Will SBF change his plea before the trial starts?

27% chance

Will Michael Lewis testify at SBF's trial?

30% chance

Will SBF be sentenced to 20+ Years?

78% chance

How much will we believe SBF committed willful fraud in the FTX collapse after 1 year? [Poll, resolves to avg %]

Jack

86% chance

Does SBF get a sentence of 20 years or more?

Benjamin Ikuta

76% chance

Will SBF be charged with witness tampering?

oh no

21% chance

SBF Trial in October