Will GPT-4 be released before March 21st, 2023?

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106

Ṁ72k

resolved Mar 14

Resolved

YES

ALL

Screenshots/announcements/demos without anyone outside OpenAI able to access them will not count.
Any release before the end of March 21st (EST) counts (API, Playground only, etc.).

Release must be publicly announced, rumors or anecdotes don't count.
Resolution based on my best judgment, thus I won't bet.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

predictedYES

https://twitter.com/sama/status/1635684890812485633?t=5hemwdBB9DCPTmgyFUcG-Q&s=19

As a note, I am getting rid of my position slowly. I accumulated it doing a pseudo-arb with the market ending on the 31st (if it is released before the 21st, it releases before the 31st).

I forgot that I said I wouldn't trade this market

predictedNO

Just going to comment that there is now 8 days to go, a massive banking crisis in the US and this is trading at 65%.

https://twitter.com/mark_k/status/1633901801643622411

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