Background
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2023/09/22/canada-plunges-deeper-into-diplomatic-crisis-with-india_6138515_4.html
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Canada officially imposes any form of sanctions against India between September 21, 3 PM ET and October 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The sanctions could include measures like trade restrictions, financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
1,000🏅 Top traders
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In the fiscal year 2022-23, data from the Ministry of Commerce's Trade Stat database revealed that Canada held the 35th position as one of India's largest trading partners in the global context. Moreover, following the sixth Ministerial Dialogue on Trade & Investment (MDTI) in Ottawa in May, it was disclosed that Canada and India had accomplished remarkable progress in their bilateral trade of goods, reaching a value of C$12 billion in 2022, representing a substantial 57% year-on-year growth. Within this total, bilateral services trade contributed C$8.9 billion.
From Canada's perspective, India holds the status of a "priority market," and, in fact, India stands as Canada's 10th largest trading partner among all countries.
Taking these facts into consideration, the relations might get affected for sometime in terms of political relations, but will gradually get sorted as both the countries have strong trade and economic relations. In case if Canada imposes sanctions on India by October 31, Canada might loose it's trust in the Global Markets.
Economic data and statistics reference -
Ghosh, S. (2023, September 30). The potential economic and trade fallout of strained Indo-Candian diplomatic relations | Explained. The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/the-potential-economic-and-trade-fallout-of-strained-indo-candian-diplomatic-relations-explained/article67349441.ece
In the fiscal year 2022-23, data from the Ministry of Commerce's TradeStat database revealed that Canada held the 35th position as one of India's largest trading partners in the global context. Moreover, following the sixth Ministerial Dialogue on Trade & Investment (MDTI) in Ottawa in May, it was disclosed that Canada and India had accomplished remarkable progress in their bilateral trade of goods, reaching a value of C$12 billion in 2022, representing a substantial 57% year-on-year growth. Within this total, bilateral services trade contributed C$8.9 billion.
From Canada's perspective, India holds the status of a "priority market," and, in fact, India stands as Canada's 10th largest trading partner among all countries. The Global Canada department, overseeing international diplomacy and affairs, has emphasized the significant role that India will play as Canada strengthens its economic ties in the Indo-Pacific region, as part of a comprehensive strategy for the area.
On the other side, India's primary exports include pharmaceutical products, iron and steel items, organic chemicals, marine products, and various forms of apparel and textiles.
Taking all these facts into consideration, the relations might get affected for sometime in terms of political relations, but will gradually get sorted as both the countries have strong trade and economic relations. In case if Canada imposes sanctions on India by October 31 on grounds of acquisitions made by PM of Canada that India is behind killing of Extremist "Harshdeep Singh Nijjar" without a proper base and evidence, Canada might loose it's trust in the Global Markets. So i believe unless evidences comes into existence the Trade Relations not gonna get worsen.
Economic data and statistics reference -