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MANIFOLD
Will Louisiana Amendment 2 (millage rate adjustment authority) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
1
Ṁ1kṀ1
Nov 4
55%
chance

This market resolves YES if Louisiana Amendment 2 (Do you support an amendment to allow a local taxing authority to continue to levy a lower millage rate without losing its ability to adjust to the maximum authorized millage rate from a prior year's reassessment? (Effective January 1, 2027) (Amends Article VII, Section 23(C))) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of electors voting on the amendment statewide (La. Const. art. XIII §1(C)); no local-majority requirement.

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

  • YES: Taxing authorities that levy below the maximum keep the right to later raise millage to a prior reassessment's maximum (2/3 board vote plus hearing, no new voter approval), from 2027.

  • NO: Current rule stays: an authority that does not roll forward before the next reassessment permanently loses that headroom.

Results: resolves on the result certified by Secretary of State verifies, compiles and promulgates returns (La. R.S. 18:574(D)); Governor proclaims adoption (Const. art. XIII §1(C)).. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://www.sos.la.gov/media/jo2die1s/proposed-constitutional-amendments-2026-nov.pdf

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