This market resolves YES if Idaho HJR 4 (Amendment to Idaho Constitution - House Joint Resolution 4 (Section 26, Article III, psychoactive substances)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule:

Simple majority of votes cast on the question (Idaho Const. art. XX §1, 'majority of the electors')

Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented.

What the votes mean (official summary):

• YES: Legislature gets exclusive authority to legalize marijuana, narcotics or psychoactive substances (pamphlet).

• NO: No change; controlled-substance laws can still be changed by initiative (pamphlet).

Results: resolves on the result certified by Idaho Secretary of State / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls.

No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A.

Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution.

Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast.

Official source: https://archive.voteidaho.gov/download/2026_Voter_Pamphlet.pdf