Maybe this was resolved too early - Trump and Vance seem to think Harris might not be the nominee. (To be clear, I'm very confident they're wrong, but if the resolution is still controversial it makes sense to wait until the convention.)

Do you have sources of such?

https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/possible-presidential-debate-vance-trumpian-answer-rcna165759

and

https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1820914646142103893 (possibly a joke?)

Harris is officially the nominee. not like, she's the presumptive nominee, the vote is done, there's nothing at the DNC that AFAIK makes it any "more official" than what it is now. the primary is over.

obviously, harris could cease to be the nominee at some point in the future! she could drop out or be incapacitated or etc at any point before election day, and they might have to switch. but that's not how these markets are defined. but it's no different how trump could cease the GOP nominee.

The market description is "Resolves to whoever is selected as the United States Democratic Party nominee for President at the 2024 Democratic National Convention" - so I would have waited just to be sure.

@ManifoldPolitics please resolve

he's also already been alerted below - please give users on all these markets a chance to resolve if they've already been nudged, it's late at night in many places. they'll get to it.

Harris is the official nominee now

https://apnews.com/article/harris-democratic-presidential-nomination-eb43b6b346cc644b2d195315cb2bfb20

Vice President Kamala Harris, a daughter of immigrants who rose through the California political and law enforcement ranks to become the first female vice president in U.S. history, formally secured the Democratic presidential nomination on Monday — becoming the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket.
...
Harris’ nomination became official after a five-day round of online balloting by Democratic National Convention delegates ended Monday night, with the party saying in a statement released just before midnight that 99% of delegates had cast their ballots for Harris.

Per the DNC Chair and Harris, she will not be the official nominee until the close of voting on Monday, but it does seem almost certain at this point.

https://x.com/josh_wingrove/status/1819423969650659597

DNC Chair @harrisonjaime: "I am so proud to confirm that Vice President Harris has earned more than a majority of votes from all convention delegates and will be the nominee of Democratic Party following the close of voting on Monday."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/02/harris-becomes-democratic-nominee/

“I will officially accept your nomination next week, once the virtual voting period is closed,” Harris said on a live stream as delegates continued to cast ballots. “But already I’m happy to know we have enough delegates to secure the nomination.” The process officially continues through Monday, despite the foregone conclusion.

Yeah resolving Monday seems best to me.

Can this resolve YES for Kamala Harris? @Joshua
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/02/harris-becomes-democratic-nominee/

She is now officially the presumptive Democratic nominee for President of the United States.

arb

First Kamala used AI to fake Biden's voice, to pretend he was dropping out, now she's faked Barack and Michelle's voices to pretend they endorsed her:
https://x.com/KamalaHarris/status/1816760632982622245

The solemnity of the queens coronation being thus ended...

https://kingmaking.substack.com/p/the-solemnity-of-the-queens-coronation

A collection of times Michelle Obama said she wouldn't run for office: https://www.yahoo.com/news/running-list-michelle-obama-said-192124366.html

Put that next to how many times Biden (RIP) said he wasn't dropping out of the 2024 race.

ill be laughing with my free 10k mana in a couple weeks. just you wait.

I think Michelle's path is as follows: ~3 days before the coronation of Coconutmala, Barrack releases devastating oppo research on her (probably that she is a functional alcoholic, since she acts like one -- will take the form of an extraordinarily embarrassing video). This creates a new crisis and they finally pivot to God's chosen one: Michelle.

ill bet 100k mana to your 100 via managram that that doesnt happen (obama releses alcoholic oppo research, michelle nom)

lol, that was merely an exercise in coming up with an example of what a Michelle path would look like at this point. But for the lulz, I'll take the bet if the Barrack attribution is omitted (obviously it will be an "anonymous" leak).