This market resolves to the next Democratic Party Nominee who is not Joe Biden, in whatever year this happens. This means that if Biden steps aside or dies before the 2024 election, this market resolves to whoever replaces him.
But if Joe Biden is not replaced, then this market remains open until there is a nominee in a future election cycle who is not Joe Biden.
If you have any suggestions for other potential candidates to add, please leave a comment below.
@ManifoldPolitics @Joshua looks like it's official https://apnews.com/article/harris-democratic-presidential-nomination-eb43b6b346cc644b2d195315cb2bfb20 (& vote complete)
@Mana I think it's more likely that the Democratic party does not have a nominee in 2028 then Biden wins 2024, amends the constitution and then runs again in 2028 as the nominee
This market resolves to the next Democratic Party Nominee who is not Joe Biden, in either 2024 or 2028
But if Joe Biden is not replaced, then this resolves to the 2028 Democratic Party Nominee.
If let's say Biden is still the nominee in 2024 and 2028, this is unclear. I would say that it's easiest just to add "in 2024, 2028, or beyond". Or add an option for "Biden is the nominee in both 2024 and 2028"
@Mana Good point, edited to clarify that this market remains open until there is a Democratic Party nominee who is not Joe Biden.