Who will be the next Democratic Party Nominee who is not Joe Biden, in 2024 or beyond?
62
445
4.1k
Nov 7
39%
Other
15%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Kamala Harris
8%
Gretchen Whitmer
5%
J. B. Pritzker
4%
Pete Buttigieg
3%
Jared Polis
3%
Andy Beshear
1.6%
Raphael Warnock
1.4%
Hakeem Jeffries
1.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1.2%
Hillary Clinton
1.1%
Josh Shapiro

This market resolves to the next Democratic Party Nominee who is not Joe Biden, in whatever year this happens. This means that if Biden steps aside or dies before the 2024 election, this market resolves to whoever replaces him.

But if Joe Biden is not replaced, then this market remains open until there is a nominee in a future election cycle who is not Joe Biden.

If you have any suggestions for other potential candidates to add, please leave a comment below.

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bought Ṁ10 J. B. Pritzker YES

Pritzker Khan 2028!

A version of this question that also asks if the candidate would win the election or not:

How will you resolve this in the event that Biden loses to Trump in 2024 and then becomes the nominee in 2028, or wins in 2024 but becomes nominee in 2028 as well under the (extremely unlikely) event that the constitution is amended such that the two-term presidential limit is nullified?

@Mana I think it's more likely that the Democratic party does not have a nominee in 2028 then Biden wins 2024, amends the constitution and then runs again in 2028 as the nominee

This market resolves to the next Democratic Party Nominee who is not Joe Biden, in either 2024 or 2028

But if Joe Biden is not replaced, then this resolves to the 2028 Democratic Party Nominee.

If let's say Biden is still the nominee in 2024 and 2028, this is unclear. I would say that it's easiest just to add "in 2024, 2028, or beyond". Or add an option for "Biden is the nominee in both 2024 and 2028"

@Mana Good point, edited to clarify that this market remains open until there is a Democratic Party nominee who is not Joe Biden.

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