Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00https://manifold.markets/Shump/matt-yglesias-2024-predictions-will
looks like arbitrage (since the dem is the incumbent)
Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (D) vs. David McCormick (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 73% (The Hill), 75% (538), 71% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Lean D (Cook), Lean D (Sabato), Tilt D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Casey+4
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+13 (Casey vs. Barletta)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+9 (Casey vs. Smith)
Recent Pennsylvania presidential election results: Biden+1.2 (2020), Trump+0.7 (2016), Obama+5 (2012)
Manifolder commentary:
Peter Angel: How much do we expect Casey to outperform Harris? Because RCP has him at +1.9 and 538 is +4 not sure that justifies 75% (25% ahead of the presidential race)
Conflux commentary:
Bob Casey was Pennsylvania Treasurer (1977-1981). Bob Casey was the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania (1978). Bob Casey was the governor of Pennsylvania (1987-1995).
Oh, to be clear, those were all three different Bob Caseys. The last one was the only really famous one, and he had to brand himself as “the real Bob Casey”!
Anyway, this Senate race concerns a fourth Bob Casey — the son of “the real Bob Casey” — who in 2006 beat the incumbent Rick Santorum to win election as senator, and was reelected with solid margins. David McCormick, the Republican nominee, has never held elected office, though he was an undersecretary in the George W. Bush cabinet. Recently he was CEO of a big hedge fund. He ran for Senate in 2022 as well, but lost in the primary to Dr. Oz (who he characterized as a RINO). McCormick was there in the front row when Trump was shot.
Both candidates are doing their best to win over the few split-ticket voters they can find, but Casey’s incumbency and McCormick’s conservatism and lack of experience seem to be moving more to Casey than McCormick. Still, both candidates could easily win.
How much do we expect Casey to outperform Harris? Because RCP has him at +1.9 and 538 is +4 not sure that justifies 75% (25% ahead of the presidential race)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/senate/2024/pennsylvania/
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2024/pennsylvania/mccormick-vs-casey