Washington US Senate Race 2024: Maria Cantwell vs. Raul Garcia
11
1kṀ2418
resolved Nov 6
100%98.5%
Maria Cantwell (Democratic Party)
1.4%
Raul Garcia (Republican Party)
0.1%Other

  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

US Politics
US Senate
2024 US Election
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ59
2Ṁ37
3Ṁ26
4Ṁ25
5Ṁ7


Sort by:

Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:

Washington: Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Raul Garcia (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 10 traders): 95%

  • Democrat win chances per models: 99% (The Hill), 98% (538), 99% (Split Ticket)

  • Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)

  • Polling average (538): Not enough polls

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+17 (Cantwell vs. Hutchison)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+21 (Cantwell vs. Baumgartner)

  • Recent Washington presidential election results: Biden+19 (2020), Clinton+16 (2016), Obama+15 (2012)

Commentary:

The polls were weirdly close in 2022, leading 538 to give an 8% chance of Republican victory, but this year there should be no drama.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy