Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
New Jersey: Andy Kim (D) vs. Curtis Bashaw (R)
Democrat win chances per models: 92% (The Hill), 97% (538), 97% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Not enough polls
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+11 (Menendez vs. Hugin)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+20 (Menendez vs. Kyrillos)
Recent New Jersey presidential election results: Biden+16 (2020), Clinton+14 (2016), Obama+18 (2012)
Commentary:
Bob Menendez wanted to ruin it for the Democrats. (Un)fortunately, he has now been found guilty of corruption, and will be sentenced in January. In the primary, Rep. Andy Kim ran against First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy in a primary which involved a lawsuit to make the balloting more fair. Now he’ll be the first Asian to represent NJ in the Senate.