This market covers the special senate Senate race in Nebraska; the winner will serve the remainder of Ben Sasse's term.
Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00From the latest Manifold newsletter:
Nebraska (special): Preston Love Jr. (D) vs. Sen. Pete Ricketts (R)
Expert forecasts: Solid R (Cook), Safe R (Sabato), Solid R (Inside Elections)
Poll results (538): Ricketts+16, Ricketts+18
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+19 (Fischer vs. Raybould)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: R+16 (Fischer vs. Kerrey)
Recent Nebraska presidential election results: Trump+19 (2020), Trump+25 (2016), Romney+22 (2012)
Commentary:
In 2020, the Democratic Senate nominee in Nebraska was Chris Janicek. He was urged to drop out after scandals including sexual harassment. The Democratic party switched to supporting Preston Love, Jr. as a write-in candidate. Janicek got 24% of the vote anyway, and Love got only 6%. They lost to Ben Sasse, who voted to convict Trump in his impeachment trial, but later left the Senate to serve as president of the University of Florida — a position he has somewhat unceremoniously left.
All this to say, in addition to the exciting election in Nebraska, there’s a special election to fill Sasse’s vacancy. The Republican nominee is Pete Ricketts, governor from 2015–2023, heir to TD Ameritrade,4 and the man appointed to fill the seat. The Democratic nominee: Preston Love, Jr., who got 6% of the vote in 2020.