North Dakota US Senate Race 2024: Kevin Cramer vs. Katrina Christiansen
Basic
3
Ṁ305
Jan 1
1.5%
Katrina Christiansen (Democratic Party)
97%
Kevin Cramer (Republican Party)
1.5%
Other
  • Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.

  • In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.

  • This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.

    • If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.

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From the latest Manifold newsletter:

North Dakota: Katrina Christiansen (D) vs. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R)

  • Democrat win chances (Manifold, 3 traders): 2%

  • Democrat win chances (The Hill model): <1%

  • Expert forecasts: Solid R (Cook), Safe R (Sabato), Solid R (Inside Elections)

  • Poll results (538): Cramer+22, Cramer+9, Cramer+29 (the last two are partisan polls)

  • Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: R+11 (Cramer vs. Heitkamp)

  • Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+1 (Heitkamp vs. Berg)

  • Recent North Dakota presidential election results: Trump+33 (2020), Trump+36 (2016), Romney+20 (2012)

Commentary:

Like Indiana and Missouri, this seat was won by a Democrat in 2012 who then lost in 2018. Heidi Heitkamp’s loss was even more decisive. I don’t think anyone’s holding their breath for 2024.

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