Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
1,000
3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
New York: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) vs. Mike Sapraicone (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Gillibrand+23
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: D+34 (Gillibrand vs. Farley)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+46 (Gillibrand vs. Long)
Recent New York presidential election results: Biden+23 (2020), Clinton+22 (2016), Obama+28 (2012)
Commentary:
In 2022, New York State was home to a mini red wave — it’s when George Santos got elected, along with other conservative representatives. Trump’s campaign event in Madison Square Garden sparked some discussion over whether New York is a swing state. It’s not.