This market covers the normal Senate race in California; the winner will serve a 6-year term.
Will eventually resolve to the party which won the popular vote for the race, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may optionally resolve early.
This market covers events up to and including Election Day, November 5: if Party A's candidate X wins the popular vote that day, but intervening events cause the next inaugurated Senator to be from Party B, the market will resolve to Party A.
If candidate X switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
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3.00Analysis from the Manifold newsletter:
California: Adam Schiff (D) vs. Steve Garvey (R)
Democrat win chances per models: >99% (The Hill), >99% (538), 100% (Split Ticket)
Expert forecasts: Solid D (Cook), Safe D (Sabato), Solid D (Inside Elections)
Polling average (538): Schiff+23
Election result in 2018, a Democratic wave year: Feinstein+8 (Feinstein vs. de León, both candidates were Democrats due to California’s jungle primary)
Election result in 2012, amid Obama's reelection: D+25 (Feinstein vs. Emken)
Recent California presidential election results: Biden+29 (2020), Clinton+30 (2016), Obama+23 (2012)
Commentary:
There was some drama about the primary (see my old newsletter), but the general election seems to be boring. Steve Garvey, a former baseball player without clear policies, is the sort of Republican who might overperform in California, but he still won’t beat Adam Schiff.