Resolves after the AP calls the race.
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Estimated Florida Totals from Mail-In and Early Voting - 10/27/24 8AM
Trump: 2,317,403 (53.89%)
Harris: 1,983,001 (46.11%)
Trump leads by 334,401 votes (7.78%)
Assumptions: 4% to 3% R to D party to candidate crossover. 50% split for other party votes. 46% Republican candidate preference and 54% Democratic candidate preference from No Party votes.
Florida Totals from Mail-In and Early Voting 10/24/24
Republican: 1,226,379
Democratic: 1,023,492
Other: 57,984
No Party: 510,344
Pending Mail-In Ballots
Republican: 571,077
Democratic: 714,606
Other: 42,577
No Party: 423,848
Democrats and Independents have been slower than Republicans in returning Mail-In ballots.
Estimated Totals
Trump: 1,464,612 (52.3%)
Harris: 1,333,173 (47.7%)
Republican lead by 131,439 votes.
Totals are based on the 14% margin for Harris among Independents (55/41)% in Florida and assumes an even split for Other Party Affiliation voters. Totals also assume R and D party loyalty.
https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-major-lead-trump-florida-poll-1966927
Source:
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Looking at party crossover numbers Siena claims 9% of Republicans nationally support Harris and 3% of Democrats support Trump. In Florida, the most recently polled numbers are 4% of Republicans for Harris and 3% of Democrats for Trump.
Estimated Totals with FL Crossover Adjustments
Trump: 1,446,262 (51.7%)
Harris: 1,351,524 (48.3%)
Republican lead by 94,738 votes.
@BrandonRoney lots of confounding factors in that analysis comparing 2020 (when Trump actively discouraged his voters from VBM, while democrats gravitated towards it because of COVID).
The electorate has shifted with the % of Republicans voting democrat voting nearly doubling (5% to 10%). Those Republicans tend to be older which matches Florida. But also Hispanics and young voters may shift to Trump.
So overall, I find most of this early voting data analysis to be more noise than signal unless it's from a professional (e.g. that Nevada expert)
Polls have much more signal compatively and the suggest R +5 to +7, so Likely Trump (over 90% chance). I would still give Harris a 6% chance to win.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I haven't seen any evidence to suggest Ds significantly winning the crossover vote in Florida, or anywhere other than AZ where they have a history of it.
@BrandonRoney I'm talking about the how the parties have shifted.
e.g. Numerous Republicans endorsed Harris and on the other side Tulsi Gabbard and RFK shifted from Bernie to Trump.
Point is that the election is unpredictable with the large amount of independent voters and 1st time voters etc. and party ID can be misleading.
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-of-registered-republicans-Px7IWzPkRmCL_IjJjgoN3Q
These are very early mail in ballot votes. Democrats and Independents have been slower to return ballots compared to Republicans. 2.98M total ballots requested: 42.6% Dem, 34.8% Rep, 22.6% Ind.
I'm currently assuming a near even split on the the presidency for independent voters. I expect them to vote at a higher rate than the historical 20% non-participation rate because reproductive rights, hunting rights and marijuana legalization all on the ballot in Florida. The hunting rights amendment is a toothless constitutional resolution, specifically cooked up to engage right leaning voters.
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/
Florida is like 97% R this cycle. It would take a black swan event for Trump to lose. Voter Registrations were the early signal that Trump would win in 2020. They are cataclysmic for Dems now. The voter rolls are stringently cleaned up. Its a friendlier R environment. Dem PAC polls can only get Harris within 4. Come on what are we doing here. I'll keep buying in that case.
The D primary turnout decrease is because of lack of competitive primary. Party registration drop off between 2021-22 would be reflected in 2022 midterms and could perhaps explain R outperformance. I'm not sure 23-24 trend is as meaningful because of the presidential primary, and unaffiliated also dropped.
According to the Florida Department of Elections there are a lot of voters not participating in recent elections. A win for either party in Florida really looks like it all comes down to mobilization. They also have a huge block of independents.
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout
Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/
@mint This doesn't have as much significance as you think. Florida has strong protections for these Amendments initiatives. These two initiatives could drive voter turnout and that's probably the point but Trump would still need to fall pretty low in polling to flip the state.