AP called. Resolves YES @ManifoldPolitics

Estimated Florida Totals from Mail-In and Early Voting - 10/27/24 8AM

Trump: 2,317,403 (53.89%)

Harris: 1,983,001 (46.11%)

Trump leads by 334,401 votes (7.78%)

Assumptions: 4% to 3% R to D party to candidate crossover. 50% split for other party votes. 46% Republican candidate preference and 54% Democratic candidate preference from No Party votes.

Florida Totals from Mail-In and Early Voting 10/24/24

Republican: 1,226,379

Democratic: 1,023,492

Other: 57,984

No Party: 510,344

Pending Mail-In Ballots

Republican: 571,077

Democratic: 714,606

Other: 42,577

No Party: 423,848

Democrats and Independents have been slower than Republicans in returning Mail-In ballots.

Estimated Totals

Trump: 1,464,612 (52.3%)

Harris: 1,333,173 (47.7%)

Republican lead by 131,439 votes.

Totals are based on the 14% margin for Harris among Independents (55/41)% in Florida and assumes an even split for Other Party Affiliation voters. Totals also assume R and D party loyalty.

https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-major-lead-trump-florida-poll-1966927

Source:

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

Looking at party crossover numbers Siena claims 9% of Republicans nationally support Harris and 3% of Democrats support Trump. In Florida, the most recently polled numbers are 4% of Republicans for Harris and 3% of Democrats for Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

Estimated Totals with FL Crossover Adjustments

Trump: 1,446,262 (51.7%)

Harris: 1,351,524 (48.3%)

Republican lead by 94,738 votes.

99% R at this point. Positively over.

@BrandonRoney lots of confounding factors in that analysis comparing 2020 (when Trump actively discouraged his voters from VBM, while democrats gravitated towards it because of COVID).

The electorate has shifted with the % of Republicans voting democrat voting nearly doubling (5% to 10%). Those Republicans tend to be older which matches Florida. But also Hispanics and young voters may shift to Trump.

So overall, I find most of this early voting data analysis to be more noise than signal unless it's from a professional (e.g. that Nevada expert)

Polls have much more signal compatively and the suggest R +5 to +7, so Likely Trump (over 90% chance). I would still give Harris a 6% chance to win.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I haven't seen any evidence to suggest Ds significantly winning the crossover vote in Florida, or anywhere other than AZ where they have a history of it.

@BrandonRoney I'm talking about the how the parties have shifted.

e.g. Numerous Republicans endorsed Harris and on the other side Tulsi Gabbard and RFK shifted from Bernie to Trump.

Point is that the election is unpredictable with the large amount of independent voters and 1st time voters etc. and party ID can be misleading.

https://www.perplexity.ai/search/what-of-registered-republicans-Px7IWzPkRmCL_IjJjgoN3Q

These are very early mail in ballot votes. Democrats and Independents have been slower to return ballots compared to Republicans. 2.98M total ballots requested: 42.6% Dem, 34.8% Rep, 22.6% Ind.

I'm currently assuming a near even split on the the presidency for independent voters. I expect them to vote at a higher rate than the historical 20% non-participation rate because reproductive rights, hunting rights and marijuana legalization all on the ballot in Florida. The hunting rights amendment is a toothless constitutional resolution, specifically cooked up to engage right leaning voters.

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-florida/

Florida is like 97% R this cycle. It would take a black swan event for Trump to lose. Voter Registrations were the early signal that Trump would win in 2020. They are cataclysmic for Dems now. The voter rolls are stringently cleaned up. Its a friendlier R environment. Dem PAC polls can only get Harris within 4. Come on what are we doing here. I'll keep buying in that case.

Nate Silver gives Harris almost a 20% chance to win

Silver has written about meteorologists padding their forecasts to compensate for unknown variables. Florida was a swing state a few years ago so there might be some unknowns his model doesn't account for.

Silver's calibration is significantly better than Manifold's

Party reg and primary turnout have both fallen off a cliff for Dems- not completely predictive indicators, but they don't fill me with optimism.

The D primary turnout decrease is because of lack of competitive primary. Party registration drop off between 2021-22 would be reflected in 2022 midterms and could perhaps explain R outperformance. I'm not sure 23-24 trend is as meaningful because of the presidential primary, and unaffiliated also dropped.

According to the Florida Department of Elections there are a lot of voters not participating in recent elections. A win for either party in Florida really looks like it all comes down to mobilization. They also have a huge block of independents.

Voter Registration

Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Voter Turnout

Source: https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/elections-data/voter-turnout/

Obama-level dem mobilization is not out of the question, but I don't know what indicators would show that happening

How did a state that went for Obama in 2008 and 2012 become a Trump lock?

Massive incompetence by the Florida Democratic Party, to be honest

Boomer migration and realignment among non-college educated white

Hispanics in Florida are pretty friendly to Reps as well, particularly cubans

I am selling my investment before the value of Mana is decreased to a tenth of its current value on May 1 2024.

I bought DEM YES. With how the state is trending, this may be an impossible task and require significant changes in polling (or maybe a good old October surprise) but this court ruling makes it slightly more likely:

@mint This doesn't have as much significance as you think. Florida has strong protections for these Amendments initiatives. These two initiatives could drive voter turnout and that's probably the point but Trump would still need to fall pretty low in polling to flip the state.

All states and districts in one market: