Betting markets say less than 7 percent chance of an upset, Nate Silver says 18% chance of an upset.

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/picks/more-sports/us-state-presidential-odds-politics/

What's the most plausible scenario for Blalaska this year? I think it may be more competitive in the next few elections, but it's really hard to imagine it flipping this year.

@PlasmaBallin I don't think it's likely but I don't think it's <5% unlikely. Alaska is a solid red state but unlike e.g. Alabama it has a fairly elastic electorate where the marginal impact of each vote is further magnified by its small population. Like many mountain west states (e.g. Montana) its idiosyncratic local politics veer closer to libertarian than evangelical conservatism. Perhaps most pertinently, it has a sizable native population and a state democratic party recently energized by a milestone congressional candidate (Mary Peltola). In a 2024 blue wave scenario (again, admittedly unlikely, but far from unfathomable) I could see Alaska going blue before Ohio, Iowa, or even Florida.

@PlasmaBallin Oil spikes to $200 a barrel